19 Superficial analysis

19 Superficial analysis

ª 10 7

¨ A J 4

§ Q J 5 3 2

ª Q 8 2 ª A 9 6 3

¨ Q 7 5 3 ¨ K 10 2

§ 10 7 4 § K 6

ª K J 5 4

¨ 9 8 6

§ A 9 8

After the uninformative bidding 1NT – 3NT West led ¨3. Declarer played low in dummy, hoping that West held ¨10 but East won with that card and returned ¨K. Declarer ducked again and won the third diamond in dummy. After that inauspicious start he needed to get the clubs right or for East to hold ªA and the club trick for the defence.

There is only one 4-1 break which allows declarer to make five tricks – with East holding §K singleton so we need to consider the 3-2 breaks. If West holds §K there is no hope as the defence have five tricks.

So declarer played §Q from dummy which won the trick and West dropped §7. This was Richmond’s “Tough Pairs” and she was on the ball. Declarer fell for the ruse and played §J from dummy hoping to drop §10 doubleton. It was not to be and the contract went one off.

Lets reanalyse the hand. The following are the only layouts where declarer can make five club tricks:

West	East	Declarer play	East’s logical play
§10 x x	§K x	§Q from dummy followed by low from dummy	Duck the first as covering gives declarer only an unlikely losing option to play East for §K 10
§10 x	§K x x	§Q from dummy followed by §J	Duck otherwise declarer has no losing option
§x x x	§K 10	§Q from dummy Drop §10 next trick	Cover §Q

There is an element of bluff and counter bluff in the defence as East could occasionally cover with §K x and hope declarer plays him for §K 10. Game theorists might like to work out the perfect strategy here!

So how do you rate declarer’s play? My vote is “very poor”. I can say that safely as I was declarer. He failed to analyse the hand completely rather than just the club suit. If West held ¨Q x x x and §10 x she must also have a four card major. Probably the only four card suit that would be an unattractive lead at pairs would be ªA Q x x so it is a reasonable assumption that she did not have a four card major.

So it reduces to West having 3-3-4-3 or possibly 3-2-4-4 or 2-3-4-4 distribution. So she was very unlikely to have just two clubs. I allowed myself to be conned by the excellent play of §7. Well done opponent.

There is, of course, another reason not to play for §10 to be doubleton. Even if East held §K x x the contract still makes if he has ªA as well.