|
ª 7 6
© A 4
¨ K J 10
6 5
§ A K 10
2
ª A K Q 8
5
ª 10 9
© J
© 9 6 3
¨ A Q 7 2
¨ 8 4 3
§ Q 9 8
§ 7 6 5 4
3
ª J 4 3 2
© K Q 10
8 7 5 2
¨ 9
§ J
|
This hand proved difficult to bid and
to play.
South
West
North
East
Pass1
1ª
2¨2
Pass
4©3
1
South correctly judged that with so much potential
playing strength and four spades it was premature to
pre-empt
2
North cannot double for lack of hearts, the minors
are too short for 2NT so 2¨
is the only bid left
3
Not needing too much from North to make it
|
West led
ªA K and played a third when East petered. The
question is, how should South continue after ruffing with
©A?
If hearts break 1-3 with East holding
©J x x declarer cannot afford to lose a trump trick
since the blockage in clubs means that only one loser can be
discarded. If trumps
are 0-4 the contract is doomed.
If trumps break 2-2 the contract comes home by playing them
from the top.
So let’s consider the options:
|
West holds
|
East holds
|
Winning play
|
Probability %
|
|
©J
|
©9 6 3
|
From top
|
8.5
|
|
©x
|
©J x x
|
Finesse
|
25.5
|
|
©void
|
©J 9 6 3
|
Doomed
|
8.5
|
|
©J x
|
©x x
|
From top
|
19.9
|
|
©x x
|
©J x
|
Either
|
19.9
|
|
©x x x
|
©J
|
Either
|
4.0
|
|
©J x x
|
©x
|
Doomed
|
11.9
|
|
©J x x x
|
©void
|
Doomed
|
1.8
|
Summarising, 22.2% of the time you are doomed
Mr. Mannering.
Taking the finesse works 49.4% of the time
Playing from the top works 51.8% of the time
These don’t total
100% as there are two layouts where either will work.
The result is slightly counter-intuitive as it would seem
that the finesse is superior but in fact it only gains when East has
precisely
©J x x..
There is one other
consideration – if you take a losing finesse West will grab
ªQ and
¨A for two down.
If you play from the top and are wrong you go one down, a
consideration at pairs.
Finally, after you
have successfully drawn trumps, how do you play the hand?
Just run the trumps
to reach this ending:
|
ª --
© --
¨
K
J
§
A K
10
ª
Q
ª --
© --
© --
¨
A
¨ 8 4
§
Q 9 8
§ 7 6 5
ª
J
©
5 2
¨
9
§
J
|
Look what
happens when you play the penultimate trump, discarding
¨J.
West is triple squeezed and would discard a club,
hoping his partner held
§J.
But it’s
even better than that.
The end position may not be absolutely clear so you
can play the last trump.
West will have to discard another club and
¨K goes from dummy.
The last three tricks are won by dummy’s clubs.
Although it
was a one loser triple squeeze it was no better than the
simple squeezes available in clubs and either diamonds or
spades.
|
All the squeeze achieves is taking the blocked
club finesse.
|
