30 Combining chances

30 Combining chances

ª A 10 5 2

¨ A J 7 5 4

§ 9 3

ª K J 6 4 3 ª 9

¨ Q 10 ¨ 9 8 2

§ 6 2 § Q J 10 8

ª Q 8 7

¨ K 6 3

§ A K 7 5 4

West North East South

Pass 1¨ Pass 2§

Pass 2¨ Pass 3NT

Lead ª4

There must be at least nine tricks on the lead so the important thing is to make as many overtricks as possible. It’s probably easiest if we consider the diamond suit first. It has one great advantage over clubs – after one or two tricks declarer will know whether he is making two, three, four or five tricks. So trick two should be ¨K. Unless someone shows out the suit is worth another try so a second diamond is played. If West shows out declarer should win in dummy and shift tack. A third trick can definitely be established in spades before hearts are cleared and clubs might break 3-3 for four tricks as well.

Continuing the analysis if West shows out of diamonds, play a club to §K and run ª8. As the cards lie West will put up ªJ and declarer should duck to keep control. If West plays low declarer runs ª8 – East might have started with ªJ 9. In either case he wins the heart switch in dummy and ducks a club. The next heart trick is won in hand and the clubs tried. If they were 3-3 declarer ends up with four club tricks, three spades, two hearts and two diamonds otherwise only nine tricks.

But if West has a second diamond declarer finesses ¨J. If it loses there will still be four diamond tricks, three spade tricks, two clubs and two heart tricks for 11. If East shows out on the second diamond the same tally arises by giving West a diamond.

Note that if diamonds don’t produce five tricks declarer should never make 12 as a spade will be lost as well as a club. Summarising the results:

West’s diamond holding

¨Q 10 9 8 2

¨Q x x x or

¨Q or ¨x x x x

¨Q x x or

¨Q x

¨x x or

¨x x x

¨x or void

Clubs break 3-3

Yes

n/a

Yes

Tricks made

3+2+3+3=11

3+2+3+2=10

3+2+4+2=11

3+2+5+2=12

3+2+4+2=11

3+2+2+3=10

3+2+2+2=9

Some of the outcomes might vary depending on whether the defence cash their diamond trick if the suit does not break and they win a club trick.

The alternative line which I chose at the table is far inferior. I ducked a club at trick two. Now, despite the extremely favourable lie in the diamonds I could only make 11 tricks legitimately. [The defence went wrong and gifted me a twelfth]. As can be seen by the above table clubs need only provide extra tricks if diamonds are 5-0, 0-5 or 1-4 so conceding a club should wait until the bad break in diamonds is apparent.