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10 Best bid and best play

 

ª 8 7 2

© K J 6 4 3

¨ A Q 10 5

§ J

ª Q 10 6                    ª K J 9 5

© 9 5                           © 10

¨ J 8 6 4                     ¨ K 7 3 2

§ 10 4 3 2                  § K Q 9 7

ª A 4 3

© A Q 8 7 2

¨ 9

§ A 8 6 5

This deal is interesting both in the bidding and the play.

 

South   West    North   East

1©       Pass     4§1      Double

Rdble2  Pass     4¨3      Pass

4ª4      Pass     5©5      Pass

Pass6

 

This was the bidding at one table.  East’s fatuous double of 4§ achieves nothing – a club lead is unlikely to be best if North has a singleton and there is no possible sacrifice in clubs.  It allowed South to show §A cheaply by redoubling or show general interest in slam by passing.  But North’s hand is fairly barren outside diamonds and hearts so he signed off after showing ¨A. 

 

[1] Splinter showing singleton club

2 Showing §A

3 Showing ¨A

4 Showing ªA

5 Denying ¨K and ªK

6 South took a very conservative line – North could hardly have less for his bid

 

 

The play depends on the final contract and the lead.  First, let’s look at the actual contract (5©) and lead §2.

 

After drawing trumps declarer has several ways of playing the diamond suit.  She could finesse ¨Q and hope to park a losing spade on ¨A.  That is a 50% shot.  Or she could use the power of ¨9 by running it to East.  If East wins ¨J, the spade return is won and dummy entered to cash ¨A, discarding a losing spade and then ¨Q is run for a ruffing finesse against East.  So an overtrick would be made if West had ¨J or if East had ¨K, approximately 75%, which is obviously superior.

 

In 6© on a club lead the position is similar.  Running ¨9 is the superior play.

 

But what if West is awake and tries a more aggressive lead?  A diamond is fairly unattractive so ª6 would seem to be the best lead, winning if East has ªJ or ªK.  Playing in 5© declarer can either settle for 11 tricks (trying two diamond ruffs to see if ¨K comes down) or try for the overtrick by finessing ¨Q which would seem to be a very unattractive choice, even at pairs.  5© made is likely to score at least 40% while 5© one down would be a near zero.  Making the overtrick might score 70-80%.  It would depend on how the session has gone.

 

Finally, in 6© on a spade lead declarer would need to take the diamond finesse, going two off if it loses.  That is a clear top or bottom and a 50% chance.  Going one off would not be much better than two off.

 

So is this a good slam to be in?  On any lead but a spade it is 75% which is good enough for anyone.  On a spade lead it is 50%.  If you expect a spade lead 80% of the time it is a 55% bet, good enough for me.  If the lead will only be a spade 50% of the time it is 62%.

 

Anyone who has read my paper on point count bidding might like to check the points in North and South after hearts have been supported.  North has ten points in diamonds and hearts and can add three for the singleton club (but not count §J as a point).  He can also add one point for the fifth trump, 14 points in total.  South has 14 HCP and can add one for three aces, three for the singleton diamond and one for the fifth trump, 19 in total.  So the revised point count total is 33, just enough for slam.