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16 When 1NT is doubled you must avoid silly results

ª J 8 5 3

© A 8

¨ 8 6

§ Q 10 9 5 4

ª A Q 2                     ª K 9 4

© K 10 9 2                 © Q J 4 3

¨ Q 3                          ¨ J 9 5 2

§ J 6 3 2                     § K 7

ª 10 7 6

© 7 6 5

¨ A K 10 7 4

§ A 8

Dealer East, North-South vulnerable (orientation changed for article)

 

South               West                North               East

                                                                        Pass

1NT                 Pass                 Pass                 Double

?

 

First, do you agree with South’s opening bid?  If you are an avid Milton Work Point counter you will not.  If you are scared by the adverse vulnerability you will not.  But if you revalue your hand (see my paper on point count bidding) you will promote South’s hand to a robust 12 or even 13 (one extra for the ace-tens and one for the good suit)

 

East’s double is one of those bids that either get a top or a bottom.  If he hits his partner with about 10 points in a balanced hand he will score but if partner has 6-9 points in a balanced hand he is likely to get a poor result in a doubled contract or 1NT doubled making.  It’s not a bid I like but never argue with success; this time he struck gold.

 

The focus turns to South again.  Should he bid or pass?  Partner is marked with 0-11 Milton Work Points (11 only if it is a truly horrible 4-3-3-3-) so the opponents have at least 18 Milton Work Points.  More likely they have over 20 and have got you on the hop.

 

Passing will score well only if partner is balanced with 8+ points.  In that case you may scramble seven tricks (four in diamonds and a club plus two from partner) before they get at you.  That will be a clear top.  But if partner has 6-7 points he will probably pass for a poor result.

 

If you read my paper on wriggles, you will see that there are fewer options for the partnership when the double comes from fourth seat (an argument in favour of East’s bid?).  It also emphasises the need to avoid silly results and going one off doubled vulnerable when there is a safe escape is a silly result.

 

So South should bid 2¨ “in front of” partner.  If partner has 8-11 points you have thrown away a top for an average at best. But in most other cases (unless partner is 4-4-1-4) you will improve the contract.

 

But if South decides to pass what should North bid? 

 

  • Redouble is possible in teams or rubber bridge but a little rich for my blood.  Opponents may escape to a red suit which partner cannot double and you then have to pass and defend.
  • 2§ is the safest bid and may get a plus score but will not do well against those making 1NT, possibly doubled.
  • Pass is fairly aggressive and may result in a poor score but you probably have at least 20 Milton Work Points between you and they are well placed so, unless West finds a good lead, you are probably favourites to make 1NT doubled.

 

So what were the actual results?  The percentages are to North-South.

 

  • Opening 1NT and rebidding 2¨ would score at least -100 (40%), possibly -200 (5%) on perfect defence but could scramble home for a very good result.

 

  • Opening 1NT and passing scores +90 (100%) if partner bids 2§ and -500 (0%) if partner passes

 

  • Passing throughout lets East-West bid and make a part score, -90 (75%) to -140 (25%)

 

So how do I feel now about the recommended bids?  I would still open 1NT and rebid 2¨ in pairs as, in the long run, these bids score heavily.  But not at teams or rubber bridge (I prefer a strong NT at both anyway).