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32 An opportunity missed

 

ª J 2

© A J 2

¨ A 8 5 4

§ A Q 7 4

ª 8 7                           ª A 5

© Q 6 3                      © K 9 4

¨ Q 9 7 3 2                ¨ J 10 6

§ 6 5 2                        § K J 10 9 3

ª K Q 10 9 6 4 3

© 10 8 7 5

¨ K

§ 8

Contract 4ª  Lead ¨3

 

I missed a better line of play on this hand and got a deservedly poor result.  Winning in hand with ¨K I played ª10 (correct).  East won (nothing is better) and returned a diamond.  After ruffing a diamond I drew trumps; so far so good.  The issue is: what is the best line to make an overtrick.  Two obvious lines are:

 

a)      Finesse §Q and then, if it succeeds, hope for a remote squeeze for a second overtrick.  50%

b)      Run ©7 (slightly deceptive – West might put up ©Q with ©K Q).  That succeeds if West has ©9 with an honour.  If East wins ©9 the club finesse is still there but East will return a heart so it is too dangerous.  37.5% plus a few % if West has ©K Q

 

The line I missed, which depends on West having five diamonds indicated by the play, was:

 

Finesse ©J.  That succeeds if West has ©K Q.  Assuming East wins with a heart honour he must return a heart.  Playing for split honours (restricted choice and all that) declarer plays ©8 and wins if East has ©9.

The advantage of this last line is that it succeeds when:

  1. West has ©K Q (16.5%)
  2. West has singleton ©K, ©Q or ©9 (but the lead might be different) (5.6%)
  3. East has ©9 (46%)
  4. West has ©H 9 and §K – the ending is a show-up squeeze on West so the club finesse comes back into play (8%)
  5. East has ©K Q (West with ©9) and either returns an honour or is squeezed in clubs and hearts and makes it obvious (up to 7.7%)

 

The first four total 76% which is far better than the club finesse!